Friday, November 20, 2009

Cold thanksgiving?

Its looking more and more likely that we'll be below average (20's, 30's!) for Wednesday and Thanksgiving.
MODELS SPLIT IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY
WITH GFS QUICKLY PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN STILL SLOWER KEEPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PORTION OF FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE
REFINED A BIT OVER TIME. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FOR THE
PERIODS BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT AT THIS
POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GOING FURTHER OUT IN TIME HOWEVER THINGS
ARE LOOKING A BIT MORE SIMILAR BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH SHOWING
COLD UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WHILE THIS STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST THERE HAS BEEN
SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST DAY
OR SO. WITH THAT CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AND EVEN ALL
SNOW IN FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THICKNESS ALOFT...H850
TEMPS AND SURFACE TEMPS WOULD INDICATE ALL SNOW RATHER THAN A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW. THERE/S STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIME TO SORT OUT ALL THE
DETAILS OF THIS EVENT...BUT THE MAIN POINT IN THE LONG TERM IS THAT
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICK CHANGES TO THE RATHER MILD
CONDITIONS THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEKS.


Thats from the NWS out of Cleavland. Its much more detaled that the one out of Pittsburgh.

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